Putin, cash and guns prompt ‘explosive’ rethink of Swiss neutrality

Switzerland isn’t keen on getting involved in wars but likes making money.
The clash between those values — plus worries that Russian President Vladimir Putin poses a risk to the whole of Europe — is prompting the country to rethink its defense stance.
In a bombshell report released on Thursday, a group of experts recommend to the government that the country, which has been neutral since 1515, work on a “common defense capability” with the EU and NATO.
“Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, neutrality has once again become the subject of political debate, both at home and abroad. Pressure on Switzerland to clarify its position is growing,” reads the report, calling for a “revision” of its neutrality policy.
One of the many drivers is how Switzerland’s neutrality has affected arms sales; another is how to better defend a country surrounded by two groupings to which it doesn’t belong.
The potential policy upheaval is yet another sign of how Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine is changing Europe’s security landscape. The unprovoked attack prompted Sweden and Finland to ditch their neutrality and join NATO.
The experts preparing the report — including diplomats, senior officials, a former head of the Swiss army and Wolfgang Ischinger, the former director of the Munich Security Conference — delivered their findings to Swiss Defense and Security Minister Viola Amherd, who is also president of the Confederation for 2024. The recommendations will inform Switzerland’s 2025 security strategy.
Switzerland’s arms exports fell last year by 27 percent to less than 700 million Swiss francs (€746 million) compared to 2022 — due both to strict arms export provisions and to the one-off effect of Qatar ending air defense systems purchases tied to its hosting of the 2022 World Cup.
Bern bans the sale of weapons to countries at war, and that’s had a ripple effect on relationships with other countries wanting to send arms to Ukraine that might include Swiss components.
“The re-export ban must be lifted,” urges the report.
Switzerland has blocked delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine from several European countries. It took months of pressure for Switzerland to agree to ship surplus Leopard tanks to Germany to replace those sent to Ukraine. Its refusal to allow Swiss-made ammunition in Germany’s stocks to be sent to Ukraine for use in donated Gepard anti-aircraft systems helped prompt German armsmaker Rheinmetall to boost ammunition production in Germany.
Experts also want to strengthen the Swiss arms industry by boosting offset policies and gaining access to EU and NATO armament programs.
The report was controversial before it was even released, as opposition parties accused Amherd of appointing mainly NATO and EU enthusiasts to the experts committee.
It’s likely to meet pushback in the Swiss parliament, especially from pacifist left-leaning parties and the nationalist far-right; Amherd is already under fire for the country’s increasingly close ties with NATO.
“The report makes it clear that Switzerland is a Western country and therefore supports Western values,” said Jean-Marc Rickli, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy’s head of global and emerging risks.
However, “calls for increased military cooperation with NATO and the EU will very likely stir lots of debate within Switzerland,” he added, agreeing with assessments that the report is potentially “explosive” domestically.
The experts stop short of suggesting that Switzerland entirely scrap its neutrality and join NATO, but they do urge deeper ties with the military alliance and the EU on joint training, defense against ballistic missiles and bilateral and multilateral exercises.
The report also calls for military expenditure to reach 1 percent of GDP by 2030. Switzerland currently spends 0.76 percent of GDP on defense — far less than any NATO member except Iceland, which doesn’t have a military.
While it’s unlikely Switzerland will be invaded, the country is already the target of hybrid warfare including disinformation, espionage and cyberattacks, according to the report. The experts recommend moving toward “global defense,” meaning preparing the whole of society — not only the military — for a potential conflict.
In the past months, the Swiss federal council, which runs the country, has signaled a willingness to cuddle up to both NATO and the EU on security and defense.
On Wednesday, a Swiss delegation traveled to Luxembourg to meet with NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). One of the meeting’s goals was to assess potential synergies and opportunities for cooperation with the agency.
Earlier this month, the federal council also approved participation in two of the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects, one on military mobility that aims to facilitate border crossings and another one on cyberdefense.
According to Rickli, Switzerland wants to prove it’s playing its part in case the neutral country needs military help from EU countries or NATO.
“There’s a reputational element of Switzerland potentially seen as a free rider who doesn’t cooperate with European states,” he said. “If it wants to benefit from the help of its European partners, it has to give something back.”